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Grams, M. E. et al. Kidney-failure risk projection for the living kidney-donor candidate.
The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks.
Our goal was to perform a quantitative evaluation of outcomes following an AS strategy for DCIS.Age-stratified, 10-year disease-specific cumulative mortality (DSCM) for AS was calculated using a computational risk projection model based upon published estimates for natural history parameters, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for outcomes.
This step is useful, but not essential, for a risk projection.
An early-phase risk projection was published 1 month after the accident (Arnold 2007).
This indicates that both models give comparable results for risk projection (see Figure 2).
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This permitted a comparison between the projections produced by differing application approaches, whilst also considering the uncertainty associated with flood risk projections under observed conditions.
The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations.
"Collective effective dose is not intended as a tool for epidemiological risk assessment," the group said, "and it is inappropriate to use it in risk projections".
Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge.
Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections.
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