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Better predictions on the risk of establishment of new disease foci in this forest area can be achieved from these results.
Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.
A multi-generational model of gypsy moth phenology was developed from existing literature and used to assess the risk of establishment of this exotic pest across North America based on the suitability of 4457 locations in satisfying the temperature requirements for seasonal development.
Many countries already monitor ships for infestations of gypsy moth eggs, but "a transition to white LEDs at, or near, ports may elevate the risk of egg masses moving on a transoceanic pathway, which potentially increases the risk of establishment in new regions".
Scientists with expert knowledge of local ecosystems could then evaluate risk of establishment and invasion by interpreting niche models and the natural history of the species.
No data were available on the risk of establishment given introduction of an infected canid.
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Aquacultural practices frequently result in high population densities and other stresses (such as intercurrent disease) which increase the risk of infection establishment and spread.
These measures are required to ensure market access for the exporting country and also to minimize the risk of the establishment of a damaging virus epidemic in the importing country.
In addition, there is evidence for an increased risk of the establishment of independent transmission cycles among poultry through subclinically infected domestic ducks [4].
Positively skewed variation in the duration of the diseased period (TD) and in shedding rates (κD) tends to decrease the risk of footrot establishment in the population.
When bacterial decay is fast, the risk of footrot establishment and long-term persistence is considerably lower than when bacterial decay is slow, except for α = 0.25.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com