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"In order to keep the prices stable, we have to have a reserve margin," she said.
"Within three years we will see reserve margin of generation fall from below 14% to below 5%.
On Tuesday, the tightest day this summer, the reserve margin fell to 3percentt at 3 30 p.m.
One of these tools, which the company describes as "last resort" measures, was deployed earlier this month as unexpected generating plant shutdowns ate into the reserve margin.
This year, National Grid's crucial reserve margin – its capacity to produce more energy during peak demand – is 5.1%, meaning 57 megawatts will be available.
"While the reserve margin will likely tighten in 2015, which is positive for prices, we see it widening out again from 2016.
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This is leading to a reduction of reserve margins".
At the same time, the study said, energy reliability would decrease by a factor of five, with reserve margins cut almost in half.
Nevertheless, capacity additions are finally increasing faster than demand after years of decline, and industry officials expect the overall reserve margins to increase over the next few years.
Power generators and many Wall Street analysts also said wide swaths of the country -- most notably California and New York -- were far from having a surplus of capacity, and had narrow reserve margins against blackouts.
All that talk about reserve margins would quickly give way to talk about margin calls; worries about spent fuel pools would turn into outrage over pooled asset accounting schemes; and nuclear fallout fears would be replaced by the fear of owning the latest I.P.O.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com