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"I think the leeway we have thanks to the restructuring of debt or the reprofiling of debt is very low," he said.
More important, the evidence suggests that timely reprofiling of debt causes far less damage to bond yields, future market access and a country's credit rating than a big haircut (see chart).Occasionally, governments choose to stiff their creditors when they could pay up.
Quick agreement on, and vigorous implementation of, the IMF's proposals could be the ideal catalyst, both because the fund could prod all its members to issue new holdout-proof bonds and because more bail-outs would involve the reprofiling of debt as a matter of course.
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The IMF thinks 1.5% is a more plausible figure and wants "reprofiling" of Greek debts – easing the overall burden and softening the interest rate.
According to the IMF forecast, Greece will be burdened with debts worth 250% of GDP by 2050 without "a substantial reprofiling" of the terms of loans.
But another, the "reprofiling" of bonds, is being actively considered.Under reprofiling, the Greek government would continue to pay coupons on bonds and to redeem them when they come due, but the maturity of each bond would be extended.
Two days of talks in Brussels ended with public concessions that the idea of "reprofiling" Greek debt, or voluntarily extending maturities without changing interest rates or the amount of the loan, was being contemplated, at least as a last resort.
First, it wants greater leeway to support the "reprofiling" of sovereign debt.
Euro-zone ministers have not spelled out how what they refer to as a "reprofiling" of Greek debt would work.
Unless it is backed by a supermajority of 12 out of 15 members, the decision is passed to an external review committee of independent experts, a kind of supreme court for the CDS market.Who would win and who would lose if a reprofiling of Greek debt were treated as a credit event?
The prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, this week proposed "reprofiling" Greek debt maturities as a way of limiting the losses of private bondholders.
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