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The assumption has always been that CD sales depend on baby boomers' replacing their collections of vinyl LP's and that the end of that replacement cycle is near.
This kind of replacement cycle doesn't happen in a vacuum.
The last replacement cycle occurred in 2004 to 2005.
Right now, because of the difficult economic environment, the replacement cycle has slowed dramatically.
It could easily restrengthen once the eye-wall replacement cycle is complete.
It's typical in a process known as an eye-wall replacement cycle.
Analysts and TV makers now assume a five-to-seven-year replacement cycle for televisions.
And either way, the size of the storm and the eye typically increases during an eye-wall replacement cycle.
"If we do come out of this malaise, we'll probably see a replacement cycle, which would be good for parts makers," he said.
There is a pretty strong replacement cycle for color handsets, and also strong demand in emerging markets like China and Latin America.
"We see a lot of catalysts that suggest there would be a solid replacement cycle," Mr. Dell said in a conference call with analysts.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com