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Kevin McCarty of the Florida Department of Insurance ran a model using data collected by the National Weather Service in the days before an actual storm; he then asked a team of meteorologists to run a model on that and render a forecast.
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A forecast?
It's just a forecast.
Another option would be to sell a forecast of the forecast of the forecast.
Of course the latter is a forecast.
(He did not make a forecast).
That is probably too extreme a forecast.
It starts with a forecast.
Follow Jules Suzdaltsev oNotwitter.
Skill refers to the accuracy of a forecast or set of forecasts relative to a standard control forecast.
The HSS measures how well a forecast did as to a randomly selected forecast.
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