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Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning.
However, common to all possible outbreaks is the desire for reliable outbreak detection as early as can be managed.
Therefore, the most important factor for creating a reliable outbreak detection system is to ensure the quality of the input data.
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Across all cities either Model 2 or Model 4 had the lowest sensivities, indicating that these models are less reliable for outbreak signature detection.
The development of reliable methods for outbreak detection remains an active research area.
Knowledge of all important transmission routes is critical for preparing for future incursions of exotic notifiable diseases and for the creation of accurate and reliable computerised disease outbreak models that may be used to inform policy.
TheGoogle Flu Trends project, which claimed, with much fanfare, to anticipate seasonal flu outbreaks by tracking user searches for flu-related terms, proved to be a less reliable predictor of outbreaks than a simple model of local temperatures.
It was possible to identify two genetically different strains of S. marcescens characterized by means of ERIC-PCR, a reliable tool for outbreaks investigations.
For dengue, and many other diseases, information other than reported and suspected cases is available which may be more reliable for defining outbreaks due to the inherent temporal biases of reporting and diagnosis associated with simple reported case data (Klaucke, 1994).
For example, companies with good crisis plans could adjust corporate travel polices and provide reliable information on the disease outbreak, and quickly find their people on the road.
The difficulty of the task is characterized by (i) the massive volume of data, (ii) the need to interpret information as early as possible in the outbreak cycle when reliable facts tend to be scarce, (iii) the need to understand texts in many languages and (iv) the ambiguity inherent in natural language text.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com