Accounting entries overstated performance in polymer additives and undermined the reliability of forecasting, Ferro said.
Instead of arguing about the reliability of forecasts by computer modelers, instead of issuing competing prophecies, both sides would have to abide by what actually happens in the atmosphere.
Especially for forecasting longer lead-times, one of the inherent problems in all forecasting methods is that the reliability of forecasting decreases with increasing the lead-time.
The LLIN prices received by UNICEF from industry are based on the UNICEF mandate, UNICEF aggregated quantities, commercial terms, reliability of forecasts, timelines of payment, and long standing relationship with industry.
The RUTF prices obtained by UNICEF are based on the UNICEF mandate, UNICEF aggregated quantities, commercial terms, reliability of forecasts, timelines of payment, and a long-standing relationship with the industry.
The prices received by UNICEF from industry are based on the UNICEF mandate, UNICEF estimated quantities, commercial terms, reliability of forecasts, payment terms and long standing relationship with industry.
The ACC provides information that is very useful for understanding the reliability of the forecast from the 1st to the 12th week for each forecast initialization month.
But there were two situations, which occurred on 41 days, in which it was difficult to know the reliability of the forecast.
All this information could be converted into a set of scalar time-series feeding a predictor model, together with the other time series already used, in order to improve the reliability of the forecast.
SSclim is a measure of the covariance between modelled and observed time series (similar to the squared correlation coefficient, r), but accounts further for errors in estimating the variance (reliability of the forecast), and for model biases (see Murphy 1988; Wilks 2006).
