Your English writing platform
Discover LudwigExact(60)
The reference class forecasting was introduced to counter this bias.
Indeed, boringly, it could be literally true if the reference class is all children, and not just those in Lake Wobegon.
This outside view, also known as reference-class forecasting, completely ignores the details of the project at hand; instead, it encourages managers to examine the experiences of a class of similar projects, to lay out a rough distribution of outcomes for this reference class, and then to position the current project in that distribution.
The productivity category received the highest weighting, 89 or 70% share of the total impact with indoor climate reference class III and class II, respectively.
It's called reference class forecasting.
This is what other industries call reference class forecasting.
reference class forecasting is not used.
How should the reference class of "suspect population" be defined?
Pioneer Unveils Flagship Blu-ray Disc Player with Reference Class Picture and Sound Performance.
If this seems at all convincing, then the residual question is: How do we build a reference class database?
An approach like this might offer some traction on the reference class problem outlined above.
More suggestions(2)
Write better and faster with AI suggestions while staying true to your unique style.
Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com