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Moreover, patients with schizophrenia might benefit from interventions that help them to reduce overconfidence in their social cognition ratings in times in which they feel being under pressure.
Just putting on a frown, experiments show, works to reduce overconfidence; it causes us to be more analytical, more vigilant in our thinking; to question stories that we would otherwise unreflectively accept as true because they are facile and coherent.
And frowning — as one learns on Page 152 of this book — activates the skeptic within us: what Kahneman calls "System 2". Just putting on a frown, experiments show, works to reduce overconfidence; it causes us to be more analytical, more vigilant in our thinking; to question stories that we would otherwise unreflectively accept as true because they are facile and coherent.
Stating publicly ones plans helps to reduce overconfidence and so can help to reduce a widespread optimism bias which is all to often exacerbated in most company climates.
Moreover, overconfidence did not depend on age (r s = 0.043, p = 0.545) or project management experience (r s = 0.049, p = 0.483), while higher education might reduce overconfidence (r s = −0.106, p = 0.132).
This is well known, and techniques have been developed to reduce overconfidence by increasing the ensemble spread.
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The precise design of such forcing functions in clinical contexts cannot be discussed here but the proposal can be succinctly stated: to the extent that overconfidence is a major cause of diagnostic error steps need to be taken either to reduce physician overconfidence or lessen its harmful effects.
In situations where prequestions enhance learning, another reason they may do so is by providing a metacognitive reality check that reduces students' overconfidence, in turn enhancing the effort and attention devoted to learning the material.
In particular, the idea that prequestions provide a metacognitive reality check that reduces students' overconfidence could be tested by examining the relationship between students' confidence in their answers to the prequestions and their later accuracy on those questions at the end of class.
The present study investigates how overconfidence may reduce risk awareness and lead to an overly optimistic risk assessment, thereby clarifying how overconfidence may lead to risky behavior.
The availability heuristic (Schwarz et al. 1991; Tversky and Kahneman 1973) might explain why overconfident project managers perceive risks as less threatening: Overconfidence might reduce the availability of risks in project managers' memories, and this lower availability of risks decreases the perceived threat of those risks (Pachur et al. 2012).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com