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We contend that other than Model 4, alternative and more refined models could be developed for multivariate recurrent survival data.
The statistical models that we considered include the time-to-first-event survival model, the recurrent event survival model for a single event-type, the multivariate survival model for different event-types, and the multivariate recurrent survival model which takes into account both event-type and recurrent events.
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For the 44 patients with recurrence, median post-recurrent survival was 7.9 months (range: 1.2 90 months).
Univariate analysis showed that the residual disease of SCR, grade, PFI, the largest size of the recurrent tumors, the multiplicity of the recurrent tumors, postoperative therapy after SCR, and ascites were associated with the post-recurrent survival (P < 0.05, Table 1).
Disease-free survival was defined as the time between the day of surgery and day of recurrent disease, and post-recurrence survival was defined as the time between the first recurrence and death or last follow-up.
The 1- and 3-year local regional recurrent free survival (LRRFS), distant free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) rates were 82.03% vs. 82.03% vs. 82.58%, 51.33% vs. 51.33% vs. 53.41, respectively.
After adjustment for MSKPN risk and other variables, patients not receiving chemotherapy had significantly worse OS, recurrent free survival, and disease-specific survival (DSS) with adjusted hazard ratios of 4.18 (95% CI: 2.22 7.90), 8.96 (95% CI: 3.85 20.83), and 5.42 (95% CI: 2.09 14.06), respectively.
However, one limitation of the method we deployed, recurrent event survival analysis, is its complexity.
There are no established statistical methods for evaluating the goodness-of-fit of recurrent events survival models, and this is a topic of further research.
A second systematic meta-analysis of 17 randomized controlled trials of patients receiving AC had recurrent free survival (RFS) and OS benefit found to be greatest within combination Ifosfamide/Epirubicin (I/Epi) trials 6.
However, adjuvant CCRT for T3 or T4 or node-positive rectal cancer patients had better recurrent-free survival, overall survival and lower local recurrent rates than adjuvant RT alone [ 8].
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