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Recording probabilities by region.
Fig. 4 Recording probabilities by region.
In this paper we estimate recording probabilities for the last millenium, region by region.
However, as might be anticipated, we find that recording probabilities vary widely from one region to another, and the uncertainty about recording probabilities is typically high, going back even one hundred years.
Recording probabilities for large-magnitude (M≥4) explosive eruptions are assessed regionally over the last 1000 years, using the LaMEVE database.
Although the uncertainty is large, due to the scarcity of large eruptions, it does not swamp differences in recording probabilities across times and regions.
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Figure 2 shows how this approach with m=11 approximates the type of recording probability function that might occur in practice.
It is helpful to have a single value to summarize the amount of under-recording in the last 1000 years; we use begin{aligned} frac{text{average rate of recorded large explosive eruptions, 1000--2015}}{text{average rate were the recording probability to be 1 throughout}}, end{aligned} or, in the terms of the Appendix, R u,v)/(b−a).
Global recording probability.
The dashed curve is a hypothetical recording probability function.
The semi-parametric model for the recording probability over the time interval (a,b) contains a specified time b0≤b at which the recording probability is effectively one.
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