Cross type recapture estimates, excluding inbred cross types, were tested for dependence on the percentage of local genes using linear regressions (lm) using the initial release number of unfed fry for the cross types as weights.
Mark and recapture estimates of total population sizes from Pachón (O1) and Yerbaniz (O2) caves were similar to our estimates, with averages of 8.5 × 103 individuals and broad 95% confidence intervals ranging from about 1.5 × 103 to 17.0 × 103 [ 7].
PGR designed the study and drafted the manuscript; JM collected all the notifications, performed the record linkage and conducted the statistical analyses except for the capture recapture; EF analysed the case history of hospitalisation and analysed all clinical records; AF and ES performed the capture recapture estimates; FC and PB contributed to the study design and to the manuscript.
Grouping all samples into a single-sampling session scheme and using individual genotypes that were identified from one (initial capture) or more (recaptured) samples, we calculated a genetic capture-recapture estimates using the maximum likelihood two innate rates model (ML-TIRM) estimator implemented in the software Capwire (www.cnr.uidaho.edu/lecg) [27].
He pointed out that, like the mark-recapture estimates of population numbers, the gene frequencies themselves were estimates whose variation, based on the reported sample sizes, accounted for more than half (55.2%) of the observed variance that Fisher and Ford were trying to explain.
The H a, s, f, e; w = 200) population trajectory passed through the confidence intervals associated with all three mark-recapture estimates.
Inclusion of mark-recapture estimates helped scale the H a, s, f, e) sub-models, and also influenced estimates of population trend to a lesser extent (Figure 5).
The H a, s, f, e; w = 0) estimated abundance was significantly higher than the corresponding mark-recapture estimate in 1991, but model-based estimates passed through the 95% confidence intervals for the 1997 and 2002 mark-recapture estimates (Figure 4).
We fit both harvest sub-models to our MN black bear data and integrated the mark-recapture abundance estimates using three different penalty weights, w = (0, 1, or 200) in eq. 4; note, w = 0 indicates the mark-recapture estimates were not used in the model fitting process.
The Downing method shares many characteristics with our integrated modeling approach (e.g., both model harvest rates as a function of age and time), and one might argue that the trends from the Downing method could be scaled by the mark-recapture estimates to provide a similar depiction of population abundance over time.
