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In education, the pledge to maintain real spending on schools means real spending per pupil falls.
"The real spending review will happen then," one minister admitted.
In Europe, real spending rose by an estimated 3%.
The last row assumes that real spending per capita increased only with the poverty rate.
But when this year's fiscal crunch demanded real spending cuts, Mr. Gates resisted.
By themselves, these numbers are meaningless: real spending did not grow by nearly 800percentt.
"In the absence of real spending reform, the deficits are not going to go down".
From 1970 to 1990, real spending on health leaped 140percentt.
So, contrary to the oft-repeated view, real spending growth for regular education has been modest.
When taxes decline, the Capitol rarely makes real spending reductions, preferring to wait for the next boom.
It predicted "a much sharper squeeze on real spending in 2016-17 and 2017-18 thanythinging seen over the past five years, followed by the biggest increase in real spending for a decade in 2019-20".
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