If actual inflation goes up, in other words, the rational forecast is simply that it will come down again.
But Mr. Shiller showed that actual stock prices fluctuated much more than any possible rational forecast of prospective profits; he thought that this "excess volatility" result would settle the point.
Every field map, like a financial model or rational forecast, changes the field (i.e., the reality as such) that is mapped for the simple reason that it is communicated, thus making the same map somehow unreliable [52].
Rational hazard forecasts should fully recognize the large, indeed dominant role of uncertainties in volcanic processes, and be therefore expressed through probabilities.
Here, I do not review the methods and their technical aspects; rather, I focus on the value of rational hazard forecasts, that account for both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties that dominate in the natural processes involved in volcanic systems; and I outline a recommended best practice approach to dealing with volcanic hazards and risks, with reference to short-term forecasts.
A rational attitude in forecasting volcanic hazards should be respectful of the distinct roles of the various actors involved in the management of volcanic crises, and fully acknowledge uncertainty as a fundamental condition upon which forecasts are based.
Harries et al. recently described a model of rational antiretroviral drug forecasting in Malawi [24].
I argue that rational volcanic hazard forecasts assure a clear, unambiguous distinction between volcano scientists and decision-makers, with the formers providing forecasts in the probabilistic form that is best suited for decision-making under uncertainty – the natural state characterizing any situation of volcanic risk.
There's no point to letting indignation, or even just personal preference, override the rational effort to forecast the Academy's likely misjudgments.
In April, the group launched an "open letter" to the pope, signed by more than 100 scholars and theologians, arguing that climate-change models "provide no rational basis to forecast dangerous human-induced global warming, and therefore no rational basis for efforts to reduce warming by restricting the use of fossil fuels or any other means".
