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The range of eruption styles captured by these two events highlights the potential of TephraProb as an operative tool when rapid hazard assessments are required during volcanic crises.
Examining the range of processes controlling the occurrence of a range of eruption types and the distribution of their products is essential for the production of robust probabilistic-based eruption forecasting models.
A generalised total grainsize distribution (TGSD) is used to account for a range of eruption potential eruption styles which includes minimum and maximum grainsize (phi), average grainsize (phi), sorting, density range (kg/cm3) and sphericity of clasts.
For airborne ash the Wellington VAAC does this to some extent by running a small HYSPLIT ensemble, with a range of eruption parameters, and with meteorological data from 3 NWP models.
To provide more useful automated quantitative ashfall forecasts from a HYSPLIT/WRF system that account for uncertainty in the NWP winds and eruption parameters, we could follow the example of high resolution NWP and use an ensemble of model runs based on multiple NWP forecasts and a range of eruption parameters.
Volcanoes display a range of eruption styles which are controlled by magma chemistry, crystal content, temperature and dissolved gases of the erupting magma and can be classified using the volcanic explosivity index (VEI).
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Eruption scenarios reflect the typical eruption styles at a given volcano and are characterized by ranges of eruption source parameters (ESP) such as plume height, erupted mass, mass eruption rate (MER) and total grain size distribution (TGSD).
The case studies of Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile and La Fossaa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy) are used to illustrate the flexibility of TephraProb for working with a wide range of probabilistic eruption scenarios and eruptive styles.
This group has pursued a sustained and systematic approach to assessing the impact of volcanic ash on critical infrastructure, for as wide a range of different eruption types and magnitudes.
They may also release deadly toxic gas able to suffocate anyone in range of the eruption.
The four were chosen with the aim of being spread over a range of eruptive magnitudes and deposit shapes and, in order of eruptive magnitude, they are the 1992 Cerro Negro eruption (Bonadonna & Costa, 2012), the 2008 Chaitén eruption (Watt et al. 2009), the Rungwe pumice eruption (Fontijn et al. 2011) and the Minoan eruption (Pyle, 1990).
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