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Luck -- the governance of random fluctuation -- is one of baseball's most underappreciated concepts.
The change seems to be real and not a random fluctuation in the data.
The reason for the drop between 2011 and 2012 could be better early detection – or a random fluctuation.
But an analysis of the data by Medicare actuaries says the sharp decline in hospital admissions "is believed to be a one-time random fluctuation".
In laymen's terms this translates into one chance in 1,300 of it being a random fluctuation.
At one chance in 3m of being a random fluctuation, the findings leave no room for doubt.
Experts on prison policy said that the continuing decline appears to be more than a random fluctuation.
Now, there are at least three possible reasons my patients felt better: The drug worked; it had a placebo effect; or there was a random fluctuation in symptoms — they would have improved if I had done nothing.
The chances of this signal being the result of a random fluctuation in the data were only about 1 in 100, the group said.
At a mere 2.2 sigma, or one chance in 30 or so of being a random fluctuation, it misses the statistical benchmark by a country mile.
This is the random fluctuation of numbers lacking any meaningful pattern.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com