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(Subsequent research has put the likelihood as low as 3percentt).
A forecast issued Friday at a space agency news briefing put the likelihood that weather conditions will allow launching at 90percentt.
All things considered, the TIPS-based probability estimate looks reasonable; I'd put the likelihood of deflation at roughly 10% to 20%, but perhaps a bit closer to the upper bound.
By Wendell Steavenson Even after a month of demonstrations in Tunisia had brought about the downfall of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, on January 14th, some White House officials, along with American and Israeli intelligence experts, put the likelihood of a copycat revolution in Egypt at no more than twenty per cent.
Even after a month of demonstrations in Tunisia had brought about the downfall of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, on January 14th, some White House officials, along with American and Israeli intelligence experts, put the likelihood of a copycat revolution in Egypt at no more than twenty per cent.
On "Legal Showdown," for instance, a new talk show on MSNBC spawned by the Florida deadlock, all four legal experts queried on Thursday by the program's host, Dan Abrams, confidently put the likelihood of Mr. Gore's legal survival yesterday at well less than 50percentt.
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Kelly Hayworth, Coralville's city administrator, puts the likelihood that the project will be built at 20%.
Richard Woolhouse, the BBA's chief economist, said: "Everything that has happened in China this week puts the likelihood of that rise back two to three months.
The New York Times pollster bet 'Morning' Joe Scarborough $2,000 that his model (putting the likelihood of an Obama victory at over 90%) would be proved correct.
The C of E believes there is an 80% chance of a "hard walkout" and puts the likelihood of a walkout of either kind at 90%.
Even Sam Wang, a Princeton forecaster (who has written for this site) whose model has consistently given the Democrats better odds of holding the Senate than others, puts the likelihood of a Begich victory, assuming that the polls are unbiased, at just twenty per cent.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com