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It also depends on assumptions that may prove optimistic: that GDP will grow by comfortably more than 3%; and that the prime minister will rein in his instinct to spend money in order to head off political problems.
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That may prove optimistic, especially if an oil bonanza stimulates wider Latin American resource nationalism.Mr Browne observes that tension over the Falklands has not followed a straight path: it is worse now than it was 15 years ago.
But that could prove optimistic.
Even that may prove optimistic.
If the downturn endures, even that could prove optimistic.
The White House this week reduced its growth forecast for 2007 to 2.9%, and that may prove optimistic.
At the hearing on Wednesday, Mr. Bernanke cautioned that even the newer bleaker forecast could prove optimistic.
Even this could prove optimistic, however, because the findings are premised on an assumption that key decisions are made to tackle the debt crisis and restore confidence.
The commission's forecast of a deficit of 2.7% this year is based on an assumption that Germany's economy grows by 0.75%, which may well prove optimistic.
And in Britain, it is envisaged that Flood Re, which currently relies on state support, will become self-sufficient.That may prove optimistic.
But even this could prove optimistic.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com