Here's a link to the study, "Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity," and click here for maps showing the projected shift in fire patterns and where the 16 models agree and disagree.
This projected shift has already been labelled as the third industrial revolution [2] and it has evoked provocatively bold statements from its scholars, such as the key claim that "Digital technologies are doing for human brainpower what the steam engine and related technologies did for human muscle power during the Industrial Revolution".
At the end of this post you can read some thoughts from Bruce Forbes (who is an author) on the impact of projected shifts in coming decades on Arctic reindeer and the herders who depend on them.The Tropics The paper in Nature Geoscience, on the tropics, is "Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change".
Predictive modelling has advanced in scope and complexity to integrate: (i) projected shifts in climate suitability, with (ii) spatial patterns of landscape habitat quality and rates of dispersal.
In summary, attention to climate change adaptation in Dutch municipalities generally comes down to anticipating current and projected shifts in precipitation patterns, which is now standard local water policy [16].
Given impending changes in climate trends, projected shifts in species distributions, and associated increased likelihoods of disturbance events such as more frequent and longer periods of drought or more intense windstorms, we suggest quantifying whether, and if so, how these risks might compare between variously mixed and monospecific stands.
In this analysis, we focus on projected shifts in the mediterranean climate using a consistent methodology worldwide.
Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO2 emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.
We used a combination of Global Circulation Models (GCM), atmospheric CO2 scenarios, and both strict and liberal model thresholds to generate a range of projected shifts in potential suitable climatic habitat for plethodontid salamanders in the southern Appalachian region of the eastern United States.
Currently, bioclimatic models coupled with climate change scenarios are too coarse in resolution to accurately project shifts of species distributions on the local scale.
Given this scenario, combined with the goal of protecting anadromous fishes, models could be used to project shifts in critical propagation habitats, and management efforts could be refocused to those sites (Peterson and others 2008).
