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Then we projected forest paludification allowing the fire cycle to decrease according to projections made by Bergeron et al. (2010).
More error is attributable to the location of projected forest (8.6%) than to its area (6.2%).
To this aim, Annex 1 (i.e., developed) countries submitted projected forest reference levels in 2011 following a specific UNFCCC guidance [19].
Finally, in the index considering both climate change and natural fire regime, we first projected forest paludification considering the current fire cycle of 400 years as determined by Bergeron et al. (2004).
This represents the main difference with the approach under the Kyoto Protocol, where the assumed future impact of pre-2009 ponicies on the projected forest management was implicitly allowed.
We address this challenge by proposing to account the forest sink mitigation as deviation from a projected "forest reference level" (FRL) estimated assuming the "continuation of documented historical forest management practice".
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Taking Thailand as a case study country, this paper compares three types of RLs, which require different levels of datasets, including a simple historic RL, a projected forest-trend RL, and a business-as-usual (BAU) RL.
To quantify these effects, we project forest development excluding interaction by mortality due to windthrow, loss of vitality or even mortality due to drought stress.
We used the Habplan harvest scheduler to project forest conditions under several management scenarios mapped at 5-year time steps over a 40-year time span.
One approach considered promising is spatial modelling to project forest-cover change on the basis of historical trends; yet few such projections have been validated at a national scale.
By comparison, the projected mean forest loss to urban development alone up to 2050 is about 1800 km2 per year across the conterminous US[33], or approximately 30% of current forest loss in unprotected forests.
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