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The principal components computed from the expression of these genes were subjected to Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, and built up a model for predicting a prognostic probability for each NSCLC case.
Their weakness lies in the difficulty of associating a reliable prognostic probability with each score.
Based on equation 21, the physician would tolerate not recommending a biopsy for any prognostic probability below P treat none = r b = 5%.
To avoid misleading inference, a trustworthy model should not only ensure good discrimination and generalization but also an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with a prognostic probability.
The model selection not only accounts for discrimination power and generalization of the predictive model, but also for the trustworthiness of the estimated prognostic probability associated with each score class.
To develop a prognostic probability function (prediction rule) in order to predict the further course (one, two and three years after diagnosis) in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis undergoing surgery.
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Figure 4 shows the 95% confidence intervals of the prognostic probabilities of the six-class model.
Several competing scoring systems were compared on the basis of discrimination, generalization and uncertainty associated with the prognostic probabilities.
In particular for each scoring system the 95% confidence intervals of prognostic probabilities are estimated by the BCa bootstrap technique.
In the present study the BCa bootstrap method was used to estimate the confidence intervals of the prognostic probabilities associated with estimated integer scores [ 14, 15].
In this paper a bootstrap technique was used to compute the confidence intervals of prognostic probabilities when designing and selecting competing scoring systems.
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