The important role of changes in population density (or crowding) in producing epidemics in humans and animals has been stressed (Anderson and May, 1979, 1982; Miles, 1983; Kinlen et al, 1990).
For emerging infectious diseases, many introductions from a reservoir may occur before the pathogen adapts its tropism to the new host population and produces epidemic outbreaks [22], [25].
It is generally believed that environmental strains do not produce the cholera toxin gene as such lack the potential to produce epidemic cholera.
Humanitarian workers warn that conditions could produce epidemics of cholera and other diseases.
This produces epidemics of balks one year, called strikes another year, ejections this year.
The basic virus transmission probability parameter was then adjusted (keeping age-specific susceptibilities constant) to produce epidemics with target reproduction numbers, as described above.
However, historically, only a few subtypes of influenza virus have ever produced epidemics or pandemics in humans, including H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 [3], [3].
We set the overdispersion parameter to be k = 0.1, in order to produce epidemics that, without intervention, have run their course by 40 time units but such that there is variation in the size of the outbreak.
Transmissibility values were selected to produce epidemics similar to and more severe than seasonal influenza.
Conditions like this in Goma, Zaire, produced epidemics of cholera, shigellosis, and meningitis, which caused thousands of deaths (30).
CHIKV produces epidemics of great magnitude, is highly debilitating, and does not have any specific treatment or vaccine.
