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The prior probability reflects how probable the expert thinks the model is before looking at the data [63].
If, as is most probable, the flub is Mr. Bellow's, it is merely a little sad.
Until then, the agency is considering as "probable" the two cases that China has called "confirmed".
"My duty is to make probable the improbable," he says, with an impish smile.
As the unlikely became probable, the swagger that characterized Louisville's run sagged.
The further out into the tail you go -- the less probable the event -- the greater the uncertainty.
"It is still probable the ratings will go down," said David Bodek, a utilities credit analyst at Standard & Poor's.
It is not entirely clear but it seems probable the Mihajlovic house was destroyed during the siege.
Given how widely the net was cast, though, it is probable the scheme trapped quite a few victims.
And though the sheer scale of US deployment appears to be making immediate military confrontation less probable, the long-term prospects look increasingly murky: G.I.s.
He and other Israeli officials should have realized that a massacre was probable, the inquiry found, and should have immediately stepped in to stop the Phalangists.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com