I'd put a low probability on them easing".
Right now Morgan's economists are putting a 40percentt probability on a hard landing.
But in all probability, on 23 June, the matter that has dominated political argument for so long could be settled.
The markets are placing too low a probability on a rate rise this year.
Imagine that markets are trying to put a probability on default.
Mike Smith had probability on his side when he made his doomed decision against the Saints.
In the first experiment, a computer randomly drew a series of red and blue balls from an electronic urn, with equal probability on each draw.
"The market has been putting a very low probability on an early referendum and an even lower probability on winning it," says Avinash Persaud of State Street, an investment bank.
The deputy coroner, Dr Shirley Radcliffe, found Ms Rausing died as a result of cocaine intoxication, on the balance of probability on 7 May, and noted that the drug could seriously damage the heart.
If you have a prior assumption that modern life is rubbish and technology is intrinsically evil, then you will place a high prior probability on carbon dioxide emissions dooming us all.
With standard RDU preferences, this implies a discrete probability on the ticket price, and a continuous probability on prizes afterwards.
