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Column (v) also presents a simple regression of the timing of SIVP participation on the probability of spending the first three months after graduation unemployed, and the relationship is positive (i.e. those individuals who spend the first three months after graduation unemployed wait nearly 10 months longer on average before they participate in the programme).
The first equation modelled the probability of spending.
Finally, estimated costs for patients with and without diabetes were calculated multiplying the expected probability of spending for health care by the estimated costs for people using health care (results shown only for gamma model).
For each contrast, the "fitted probability" was the probability of spending no time underimmunized as fitted from the multivariate regression models and the "predicted probability" was extrapolated from the pre-PCV baseline trend.
The discrete state occupancy distribution or the sojourn distribution, D, is defined as the probability of spending u consecutive time steps in state j, which is geometrically distributed for a normal HMM, d j (u) = a jj u −1(1 − a jj ).
The probability of spending on consultations (88% and 87%) and on medicines (97% and 89%) was much higher for DAPPs and private clinic users when compared with other users; the lowest probability was for users affiliated with the SS (2% and 12%, respectively).
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In particular, larger observation units, like full nest I (for the specification of the household structure see Appendix Table 4 ), married couples without children, and full nest II, have higher probabilities of spending OOPE.
Our results differ from the recent study of Ávila-Burgos et al, 21 which analysed the effect of SPHI on the probability of health spending and the amount of health spending, comparing households with SPHI with those without HI (also using ENSANUT 2012 data).
This difference is calculated by estimating the probability of catastrophic spending if all people in the sample had diabetes minus the probability of the outcome if all people in the sample did not have diabetes.
Certain circumstances, which we will explore, may allow retirees to accept a higher probability of "failure," and spend more aggressively from their investment portfolio.
Diabetic individuals in low- and middle-income countries had greater out-of-pocket medical expenses (Fig. 1) and higher predicted probability of catastrophic medical spending than otherwise similar people without diabetes (17.8 vs. 13.9%; difference 3.9%[95%% CI 0.2 7.7]) (Fig. 2).
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