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We used the chosen model to calculate the probability of reproduction across the empirical range of MCS.
We found that there is a significant, positive relationship between MCS and probability of reproduction (REP = −2.43+3.29*MCS; P = .00014; z = 3.801).
The chosen model contained the single variable of mean yearly chorus size to predict probability of reproduction, as selected using the Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample size and Akaike weight.
Due to a marginally significant decline in probability of reproduction among the largest trees in the sample, a second-order term was included in the model, and the inflection point calculated using a numerical approximation with 95% confidence limits generated by bootstrapping (500 simulations).
In this case a greater fitness increases the probability of reproduction.
Our analysis on the probability of reproduction showed a significant effect of salinity (Table 2A).
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We used the logistic regression equation to calculate expected probabilities of reproduction and the results were plotted against MCS for values ranging from 0 to 4 (Fig. 2).
For the resident class, we assume that the probability of first reproduction at two years old is γ, and for the variant class, we assume that the probability of first reproduction at two years old is (gamma^{prime}).
This could increase the probability of successful reproduction and increased population average fitness.
Statistically, the results of both analyses indicate that larger choruses have a higher probability of successful reproduction.
Given the persistence of eggs, tadpoles, and post-metamorphic toads in and around the natal pond, the probability of detecting reproduction using this method is high.
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