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The probability of elimination of T. gondii from finishing pigs increased with a decrease in the number of cats and a decrease in oocyst-survival time.
The graph shows the probability of elimination of each VSI burst (from 1st to 6th) for the three VSI burst types with PdN6 intact.
If vaccination campaigns were maintained throughout the 2-year monitoring period the probability of elimination was >0.95 for all detection probabilities (Fig. 5A).
Under all the conditions that we explored (Fig. S3), the probability of elimination within the 2-year monitoring period was lower for reactive than for proactive vaccination.
The probability of elimination for the IRS campaign, mapping the probability of parasite persistence after ten years, is shown in Figure 6A.
Using outbreak simulation techniques we investigated how the probability of detection affects outbreak spread, and outcomes of response strategies such as time to control an outbreak, probability of elimination, and the certainty of declaring freedom from disease.
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In intermediate and high transmission areas, reduction in prevalence is short-lived and the probability of local elimination is low, even at high coverage levels of the intervention.
Motivated by these results, we perform simulations to investigate the tumour's response to therapy and show that the probability of tumour elimination in a larger domain can be extrapolated from simulation results on a smaller domain.
However for lower detection probabilities the probability of achieving elimination rapidly declined, and became unacceptable (<0.95) at detection probabilities of less than 0.05 (Fig. 5A).
In addition, multidimensional parameters sweeps can be used to construct plots showing the change in the probability of local elimination (or some other defined event) as an empirical function of the parameters of interest.
The activation process could favor the retention of the transferred copy in the new genome by decreasing the probability of its elimination by genetic drift [ 44] and could explain why several cases of TE-HTs have been described.
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