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All of these things could still happen, but the probability of catastrophe has fallen substantially because of a fundamental change in the way that European leaders are dealing with the crisis.
The probability of catastrophe only increases, for example, if astronauts fly beyond the moon, to visit a captured asteroid, or if they try to match orbits with a near-Earth asteroid — or, of course, if they eventually set out for Mars.
The stakes are so high that even if these groups can reduce the probability of catastrophe by one part in 1,000, they'll have earned their keep.
For all graphs in Figs 3 5, meta-community carrying capacity Km = 106, dispersal limitation parameter ω = 0.5, speciation probability per resident propagation event ν = 10−12, two invasion attempts per time-step (setting Hubbell's [1] fundamental biodiversity number θ∼4 independently of Km), probability of catastrophe per patch X = 0.01.
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'The probability of global catastrophe is very high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon,' the Bulletin's expert panel warned.
In January 2016 they announced it has not changed: "Last year, the Science and Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock forward to three minutes to midnight, noting: 'The probability of global catastrophe is very high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon.' That probability has not been reduced.
She combined the long-term hurricane record with new data on property exposure -- building-replacement costs by ZIP code, engineering reports, local building codes, etc. -- and wound up with a crude but powerful tool, both for judging the probability of a catastrophe striking any one area and for predicting the losses it might inflict.
The clock now shows 3 minutes before midnight because the "probability of global catastrophe is very high" as a result of continuing climate change and efforts to modernize nuclear weapons stockpiles.
Overall, the four interventions taken together would save between 1 million and 300 million expected lives (lives saved in the event of a 10%% global agricultural shortfall multiplied by the probability of the catastrophe).
The long-term effects of catastrophic events on the forest landscape were predicted with the Markov model in Table 2, with and without the 0.025 probability of a catastrophe appearing in the first column.
The ongoing threat of nuclear weapons and climate change, and a president who, according to the New York Times, has "promised to impede progress on both of those fronts" were reasons enough for the Bulletin to move the clock's hands 30 seconds forward from the previous two years during which the group had described the "probability of global catastrophe" as "very high".
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com