"You and I probably wouldn't carry an umbrella if the probability of rain was 1% to 5% … [But] the consequence of missing a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake on the San Andreas is a very, very serious consequence," said James Goltz, a former emergency manager on earthquake hazards for the state.
This time there was a warning – England's whole strategy has been predicated on the probability of rain on the last two days of the second Test – so it will not have come as a great surprise that the penultimate day was so disrupted that there was no play possible between lunch and 5.10pm, at which point 22 overs were left to bowl.
But this was the only gap in the crowded Future Tours Programme, and as of Tuesday night Sri Lanka time, there was said to be a 60% chance of rain on Thursday in Kandy, where England face West Indies in one of the opening two Super Eight matches in nearby Pallekele, and the same probability of rain in Colombo for the first games in the other group the following day.
Suppose we are interested in the probability of rain tomorrow.
Partially determined probabilities are sometimes expressed with probability intervals, e.g., "the probability of rain tomorrow is between 0.1 and 0.4".
The forecast is the probability of rain (earthquake) and the result is whether it rained (earthquake occurred) or not.
If, for example, a high probability of rain is predicted for the evening, the irrigation of the garden may be delayed.
That is, we have no grounds for thinking that the probability of rain, conditional on the sidewalk's being wet, is identical to the probability of rain, conditional on the sidewalk's being wet and the sprinkler's being on (presumably, the former is higher than the latter).
Of course false beliefs may play a role, which the theory of magic-as-bad-science seizes upon; the rain dancer may think he increases the probability of rain.
This type of probabilistic questions are usually preceded by some explanations and examples about the meaning of probabilities (e.g. using examples about the probability of rain) and/or accompanied by some visual aid (e.g. a ruler).
