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"With markets, realities and probabilities of future events are changing constantly.
Humans do not know enough to quantify probabilities of future outcomes or even to describe some of them as totally unexpected "black swans".
But he warns against trying to communicate statistical probabilities of future quakes.
Probabilities of future earthquakes can be estimated from past earthquake data.
Using his proprietary model and database of historical trading situations, Way calculates probabilities of future price movements for individual securities.
Probabilities of future climate conditions derived from climate projections then help inform utility operators of impending risk.
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They also proved that people have a hard time working out the probability of future events.
While the cost of loans might increase for customers, this should be offset by the reduction in the probability of future banking crises.
Progress has been made in estimating the probability of future earthquakes, but scientists may never be able to predict the exact time and place an earthquake will strike.
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which financed the project in the belief that it might help predict the probability of future terrorist attacks, retreated rapidly as congressmen started calling it ghoulish.
In both cases, the detainees not only had to prove the past harm of an illegal strip-search but also the probability of future harm from further strip-searches.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com