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Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts.
One wonky but objective way to see this is to look at the forecasters' Brier scores, which are often used to gauge the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts.
Similar problems arise in making probabilistic forecasts about the world.
The NWS Weather Prediction Center now routinely produces probabilistic forecasts of snowfall amounts.
Essentially, they aggregate poll numbers and use some simulation software to covert them into unidimensional probabilistic forecasts.
Customers, he says, are not quite sure what to do with probabilistic forecasts.
Operational weather forecasts now allow two week probabilistic forecasts of wave height.
Gaussian processes (GPs) appear to be one of the promising methods for providing probabilistic forecasts.
Ms Slingo told the programme: "You have to, of course, with probabilistic forecasts, look over a large number of events.
Barnston, A. G., and S. J. Mason, 2011: Performance of IRIs seasonal probabilistic forecasts of "extreme" precipitation and temperature.
The IRI's probabilistic forecasts of seasonal precipitation are issued near the middle of each month for the full globe.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com