Each sticks to his original predictions, with Rich saying 40% since you can't ignore the possibility of unexpected events like "losing the FBI primary, a recession or terrorist attack".
What Keynes understood is that governments bear primary responsibility for recessions.
Our primary focus is the recession and getting the economy moving.
When we look at the last eight elected presidents, only Carter faced a situation worse than Obama's: approval ratings in the low 30s rather than low 40s, the likelihood rather than the mere possibility of a recession, a primary challenge rather than a clear path to renomination and a crisis in Iran rather than a string of foreign-policy victories.
"My sense is that their primary motivation is avoiding recession," said Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the liberal-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and a former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. "But I think the key to whether they are serious or just posturing is the question of taxes, and if they're truly willing to support raising more revenues".
A wide range of asset holdings appeared to have been seriously hit by the recession, including primary housing, business assets, vehicles, real estate and financial assets.
There's a school of thought that says, though we may be in a recession, the primary "engine" of growth is still in place.
During much of the postwar era, economists and policymakers believed that fiscal policy was government's primary tool for countering recessions.
In every one of those recessions, the primary driver in the recovery was construction of residential and commercial construction.
"The primary reason is the global recession, which led to a 75% decrease in funding for the measles initiative," says Stephen Cochi, a pediatrician at CDC, who was not involved in The Lancet study.
