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The epidemic size is also dependent upon the location of the primary outbreak [ 11, 12].
The first generation is defined as those farms receiving livestock from the infectious primary outbreak farm.
The primary outbreak farm remains "infectious" throughout the pre-detection period.
The magnitude of the proportion of primary outbreak farms that can move infectious animals to a livestock market and its annual cyclicity are close to that for any spread from the primary outbreak via movements.
We analyse how this depends on the time of the year infection occurs, the species transmitting, the length of infectious period on the primary outbreak farm, location of the primary outbreak, and whether a livestock market becomes involved.
This potential is measured as the proportion of primary outbreak farms moving livestock to other farms whilst infectious.
We therefore consider infectious periods on the primary outbreak farm of 1 week, 2 weeks and 4 weeks.
A scenario is defined by the length of infectious period on the primary outbreak farm and the species transmitting.
We consider both direct movements from the primary outbreak farm to other farms and movements that involve livestock markets.
In reality, the dynamics of the infection on the primary outbreak will determine what proportion of its livestock becomes infectious and how rapidly.
We analyze the movement network for each seeding date such that the primary outbreak varies across all farms in the population.
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