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Both would need to boost their primary balances by more than 12% of GDP, compared with what is forecast for 2014.
In addition, in the past the need to maintain large primary balances was smaller because public debt was much smaller.
It looks at the largest primary balance ever maintained by advanced economies over a period of ten years and finds that the median of the distribution of these primary balances is about 3¼percentt of GDP -- therefore below the above-mentioned range, but not by a huge amount.
Given the limits to very ambitious changes in fiscal targets in the short term, due to inflexibility in the current structure of public expenditures, establishing multi-annual targets for primary balances and/or caps on public spending to GDP ratios would enhance the credibility of the fiscal adjustment effort.
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That figure would represent a "primary" balance (a balanced budget once interest payments are excluded), and would also arrest the rise in the debt as a share of GDP.
This will require tightening the primary balance (before interest payments) of governments.
But Athens now seems on course to achieve "primary balance" this year.
Ireland is targeting a deficit of 4.8% in 2014 which is within the 5.1% EDP target and will deliver a primary balance or small surplus.
Then, much harder, he will set about returning the budget to "primary balance", which is achieved when new loans raised go only towards servicing existing debts.
Its primary balance (ie, excluding interest payments) is in surplus and the average maturity of its debt is a reasonable seven years.
In the first nine months of the year the primary balance (before interest payments) posted the first deficit since the Central Bank began taking stock in 2001 (see chart).
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