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The parameter α is assumed as 0 < α < 1. Presuming that the government distributes permits uniformly across firms and then allows a secondary market in those permits, then those firms maximize their profits at each date, taking the wage rate w t and the price of permit τ t as given.
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But the price of permits fluctuates more than the price of coal or biomass.
Overallocation led to volatility and a collapse in the price of permits last year.
The price of permits lately has been about €3.65 per ton in the international trading market that has emerged.
With the price of permits currently less than €7, or $9, the system "doesn't function," Mr. Oettinger said.
A larger-than-expected drop could mean even more permits trading on those markets, driving the price of permits even lower than is already the case.
As overall reductions are realized, governments can slowly reduce the number of outstanding permits to keep both the price of permits and interest in further reductions high.
Strategic behavior is possible because a state's environmental policy indirectly affects the price of permits and, therefore, abatement in other states.
The analysis highlights how an enforcement strategy can cause abatement-cost risk to be transmitted to enforcement costs via the price of permits.
In similar fashion, the shares of European clean-energy firms fell this summer, along with the price of permits to emit carbon dioxide within the EU.
The weak economy, which has reduced economic activity, has added to the glut, driving the price of permits, some of which are now auctioned, to nearly zero.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com