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The Galaxy poll assumed a 40% preference flow to the Liberals, based on federal preferences in the 2013 election.
McGowan won 31% of the primary vote and was carried to victory on a strong preference flow from the Greens, Labor and the Palmer United Party.
The vast majority of Greens voters preference Labor, and the evidence suggests the Greens how-to-vote card has little impact on the preference flow.
Labor's David Feeney holds Batman by a 10.6% margin – but without a beneficial Liberal preference flow, that margin is effectively wiped out.
McGowan won 31% of the primary vote and was carried to victory on a strong preference flow from the Greens, Labor and the Palmer United party.
In that 2015 Queensland election, despite the state's optional preferential voting system, the preference flow from the Greens to Labor was far higher than in previous elections and this had a big impact on the result.
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On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor's support is down seven points to 46% and the Coalition's is up seven points to 54%." Roberston and Dobell are seats on the central coast of NSW.
Based on preference flows at the last election these figures translate to a two-party preferred result of 55% for Labor and 45% for the Coalition.
But the final result will depend on complicated preference flows.
Was this a fluke of preference flows that lead to another quirky electoral outcome?
The Liberal first preference vote fell to 45.6%, and strong preference flows to Schumann from Labor and One Nation came close to creating an upset.
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