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University of Chicago Consortium scholars were also stunned to discover that passing courses in ninth grade was a better predictor of graduation than test scores, family income and race.
The indicator is a more accurate predictor of graduation than students' previous achievement test scores or their background characteristics.
Ninth-grade ontrack status is a stronger predictor of graduation than all background factors and test scores combined.
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In short, privilege is a stronger predictor of college graduation than high school attainment.
Examples included UChicago Consortium's On-Track Indictor as a Predictor of High School Graduation and recent UChicago Consortium/Ounce of Prevention efforts to design and test the Early Education Essential Organizational Supports Measurement System, which helps early childhood education programs to diagnose their strengths and weaknesses.
According to Education Department research, the rigor of a high school's academic program is a better predictor of college graduation than race, family income or level of parent education.
These findings suggest that in middle childhood, hyperactive inattentive behaviors may be a more meaningful predictor of high school graduation than other forms of early disruptive behavior (e.g., aggression), especially for girls.
Research also indicated that staying on-track was an even stronger predictor of high school graduation than eighth-grade test scores and demographics, including poverty and race/ethnicity.
It has published nearly 100 studies and reports on key reform issues, including the identification of "five essential supports" that lead to sustained improvement at elementary schools; why freshmen grades and attendance are a key predictor of high school graduation rates; and how urban schools can help students successfully transition from high school to college.
According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, "Reading proficiency by third grade is the most significant predictor of high school graduation and career success, yet two-thirds of U.S. third-graders lack competent reading skills".
Reading proficiency by third grade is the best predictor of high school graduation and career success, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics, but two-thirds of U.S. third graders lack adequate reading skills.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com