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"The data driving predictive enforcement activities – such as the location and timing of previously reported crimes, or patterns of community- and officer-initiated 911 calls – is profoundly limited and biased," the report summarized.
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The increasing use of predictive analytics by law enforcement and judicial agencies around the world has sparked inevitable comparisons with the Tom Cruise science fiction film Minority Report in which police "pre-crime" units use predictions made by psychics to apprehend potential offenders before their crimes have taken place.
"Predictive policing is a proactive law enforcement model that has become more common partially due to the advent of advanced analytics such as data mining and machine-learning methods," he said.
The notion of predictive policing is attracting increasing attention from law enforcement agencies around the country as departments struggle to fight crime at a time when budgets are being slashed.
In fact, one policing model, predictive policing, can exacerbate racial tension between law enforcement and African-American communities.
Though the city has added hundreds of cops, launched intensive programs to improve the enforcement of gun laws, and experimented with predictive algorithms to identify who is most likely to commit acts of violence, the crime wave has proved alarmingly resistant to efforts to control it.
Trott said he thinks the predictive software certainly has helped with response times and enforcement efforts by putting troopers in the right place at the right time.
The forerunner to predictive policing, "CompStat -style CompStat -stylehas been crimenplace in law enforcemappingr more thas 20 years, and has long been subjecommonplacear crinicisms.
Virtually all predictive policing tools are proprietary software sold to departments by private law enforcement vendors and marketed as a way to make the job of policing easier and communities safer.
I.B.M. and SPSS are already partners, and they use the predictive software on projects like identifying emerging crime "hot spots" for law enforcement and monitoring patient health records to find people who are most likely to develop chronic conditions like diabetes or heart disease.
"Predictive policing" has become one of the hottest emerging areas in law enforcement.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com