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According to paired t-test results at a significance level of 0.05 both model predictions were statistically equal to the values predicted by HPLC.
Statistical equivalence tests were employed [53, 54] to assess whether the AGC predictions were statistically similar at (i.e., equivalent; p value >0.05) to the field-based AGC stocks.
The vast majority of the teams' predictions were statistically equivalent to random guesses.
Our predictions were statistically significant, using a simple proportional model with log-normal errors, and explained over 60% of the variance in actual routes (F = 83.71, p<0.001 on 1, 49 d.f, adjusted R2 = 0.6232).
To quote Prill et al. [ 7], 'The vast majority of the teams' predictions were statistically equivalent to random guesses'.
Interestingly, one of the main conclusions of the DREAM3 event was that the vast majority of the teams' predictions were statistically equivalent to random guesses.
Similar(54)
({bf{H_1}}): the predictions are statistically dependent on the true class labels.
({bf{H_0}}): the predictions are statistically independent of the true class labels.
He attributes this to their reliance on "numerical models," which are great for predicting the weather a few hours in advance, up to a few days, however, these predictions are statistically accurate only if the location in question is large enough and the time is at least one hour out.
It was found that both model development and its predictions are statistically valid and correct and only few data points were located out of the applicability domain of the proposed model.
We propose the use of the Bayesian test of independence in contingency tables described in [2] to compute the ratio of the posterior probabilities of the following two hypotheses: ({bf{H_0}}): the predictions are statistically independent of the true class labels.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com