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In their cohort of 468 patients whose median survival was 24 days, only 20% of survival predictions met their criterion of accuracy (predicted survival within ±33% of actual survival); 63% were too optimistic and 17% were too pessimistic.
This is not a very impressive record when contrasted with major theoretical developments of this century -- general relativity and quantum mechanics, for example, which were developed to address observational issues, and whose predictions met the test of experiment before being lionized.
For algae and Lemna, the mixture toxicity predictions met the reported product toxicity with less than tenfold deviation.
Given these considerations, how well were these predictions met?
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In addition, we define a reasonable stopping criterion to avoid further experimentation when the desired predictions meet a certain precision compared with the expected data quality.
We considered the predicted indel calls for each algorithm to be true positives (TP) if the prediction met the following three criteria: (i) the predicted breakpoint was within 100 bp of the true breakpoint; (ii) the predicted size is equal to the true size; and (iii) the type of predicted mutation is identical to the true event.
In experiments with a genome whose RNAP gene was displaced 23 kb, one prediction met with partial success−the evolution of an early entry mutation but the predicted benefit of a downstream promoter was not observed.
Half of the predictions were met for the consolation hypothesis and no predictions were met for the self-protection hypothesis.
The predictions of the hypothesis noted above were experimentally tested, and each of the predictions was met.
Attempts to test these predictions have met with mixed results.
In some regions, such as western Europe and California, the share could top 20%.Yet such predictions are met with scepticism by those who remember what happened after the oil shocks of the 1970s.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com