Error in 2D model depth prediction averaged 21%.
Error in 2D model velocity prediction averaged 29%.
If these methods succeeded in completely eliminating spatial autocorrelation, the RMSE of a prediction averaged over a given area would halve for each quadrupling in sample area.
RMS errors of prediction averaged less than three times the fitting errors between simulated and measured water levels.
Measured warming is 0.11 degrees C per decade; the model predictions average 0.25 C per decade.
(a,b) RMSSS (multiplied by 100) of the ensemble mean of the Init multi-model for predictions averaged over the forecast years 2 5 (a) and 6 9 (b).
(a,b) RMSSS (multiplied by 100) of the ensemble mean of the Init multi-model for predictions averaged over forecast years 2 5 (a) and 6 9 (b).
(c,d) Ratio of RMSEs between the Init and NoInit multi-model experiments for predictions averaged over forecast years 2 5 (c) and 6 9 (d).
Ratio between the spread and the RMSE of the ensemble mean for Init (a) and NoInit (b) for the predictions averaged over forecast years 2–5.
(c,d) Ratio of RMSEs between the Init and NoInit multi-model experiments for predictions averaged over the forecast years 2 5 (c) and 6 9 (d).
