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But he also predicted uncertainty about the future of that country.
Symbol size is proportional to the magnitude of the observed error or predicted uncertainty.
Note that the two predicted uncertainty profiles bracket 0.5 at the refined threshold.
The uncertainty analysis showed that predicted uncertainty is the main source for combined uncertainty.
Here again, the less reliable model signals its weakness by having a predicted uncertainty profile that crosses its voting threshold well below 0.5.
(B and D) Observed (red line) error rate profile for the validation set and predicted uncertainty profile (dashed black line) based on the training pool.
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The distribution of observed predictive errors and predicted uncertainties across the hologram descriptor space are shown in Fig. 6 for the model based on boosted training set B, and the corresponding plots of as a function of eu are shown in Fig. 7.
The distributions of errors for the boosted training sets are much better behaved; indeed, the predicted uncertainties are slightly more conservative than necessary for large errors in prediction (Fig. 5C and 5D).
(D) Predicted uncertainties for boosted training set A. (E) Predicted uncertainties for boosted training set B. (F) Predicted uncertainties for the biased training set R. Several conclusions can be drawn by comparing the distribution of errors to each other and to the distribution of activities.
There are fewer unduly low predicted uncertainties for the biased training set R, but still more than would be expected by chance (Fig. 5B).
Note that the gap between the two predicted uncertainties is smaller than that seen in Figure 6 for a 33-network model.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com