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These data indicate that the possibility of a lower than predicted attack rate needs to be factored into the design of influenza vaccine efficacy studies.
For each wave in each population, the predicted attack rate was calculated by iteratively solving the final size equation for E, given the current values of Z at the start of the wave, and the other parameters.
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We evaluated the percent reduction in predicted attack rates, number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths under these two strategies, relative to the no intervention scenario (Figure 5).
For all 3 lots, predicted attack rates rose as time from the medication production date increased.
The predicted attack by C. glomerata on P. napi oleracea under field conditions was confirmed by field choice tests in which C. glomerata attack rates on P. napi were found to be fivefold greater than on P. rapae.
Combinations of displays predicted attack better than did single displays.
Lot 08 had predicted weekly attack rates that increased from 5.5 (95% CI 1.2 23.0) cases/1,000 mL MPA administered during the first week to 57.3 (95% CI 10.7 302.8) cases/1,000 mL MPA administered during the third week October 14 , 2012) after the recall notice.
For lot 05, predicted weekly attack rates increased from 1.9 (95% CI 0.8 4.7 cases/1,0000 mL MPA administered during the first week of injections to 25.8 (95% CI 7.7 81.3) cases/1,000 mL MPA administered during the last week of injections; for these predictions, we assumed that injections continued until all vials were used.
Lot 06 had predicted weekly attack rates that increased from 1.6 (95% CI 0.8 3.1 cases/1,0000 mL MPA administered during the first week to 418.6 (95% CI 226.8 768.1) cases/1,000 mL MPA administered during the final week of injections (with the assumption that injections continued until all the vials were used).
While this study predicted that the attack rate would increase dramatically if the hand hygiene compliance fell below 40%, similar to the Cooper study they found little benefit with increasing hand hygiene compliance above 48%.
Theory predicts that predator attack rate depends on the predator prey size ratio ([ 47], but see [ 48]).
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