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In the second model, we used several aspects of functional ability and HRQoL to predict expenditure.
We used a prospective design to predict expenditure on OHS in 2001 by a company's economic performance in 1999.
We predict expenditure for antiepileptic drugs to increase by 5% annually, mainly due to increased utilization of lamotrigine and pregabalin for nonepileptic conditions.
Prescribing models that incorporate morbidity could be used to help predict expenditure for budgetary planning and separate practices that have high prescribing costs because of a high burden of disease from those that have high costs because of inefficient prescribing.
In developing relevant price indices, our study will also take into account AUSFTA impacts on prices for hospital-used medicines (which can be calculated from the PBS reimbursement price less the minimum safety net value) and predict expenditure on medicines costed under the co-payment level.
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ACGs and DCGs were developed to predict expenditures, and DCGs are generally the most predictive risk adjuster, but these measures do not predict mortality as well as comorbidity measures in a general veteran sample (13).
Figure 3 shows the relation between predicted expenditure according to CM and real pharmaceutical expenditure in primary care for each health district.
Accordingly, further research that examines actual expenditure savings to Medicare and other payors over this period is necessary to verify the predicted expenditure savings reported here.
Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of predicted expenditure to a subset of screening, cost and natural history parameter assumptions applied in the model.
Average estimated expenditure for each sample was obtained as the predicted expenditure from the health expenditure equation, calculated for the normal weight individuals, and at means of all other regressors.
Furthermore, data refining may lessen the weight of random factors in predicting expenditure, although it is known that no system of classification of patients into RUB explains all the variation in the use of resources.
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