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If I were Keynes, I would say we are in a recession; we are not the potential output level.
As a result of a deep and persistent deficiency in aggregate demand, the US economy has been operating far below its potential output level.
The feedback on the output gap (i.e., the difference between current output and the potential output level),12 and inflation are standard arguments in the Taylor rule.
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An output gap is based on educated guess work, given the level of potential output is never actually observed but has to be estimated.
If that drop is permanent, it would alone entail a significant decline in the level of potential output.
Estimates suggest a peak reduction throughout the euro area "of about 3 percent in the level of potential output".
"We have had donward revisions to the level of potential output and for a time its projected pace of growth," Ms Yellen acknowledged.
Robert Feldman, an economist with Morgan Stanley in Tokyo, argues that the Fed may be drawing the wrong lessons from Japan.The Taylor rule ignores how the level of potential output, and hence the output gap, can be affected by monetary policy.
The Treasury has lopped 5% off the level of potential output, but thinks that trend growth from that lower base will be the same as before, around 2.75% a year.
If the shortfall in demand persists it can do lasting damage to supply, reducing the level of potential output (scenario 2) or even its rate of growth (scenario 3).
The employment trend (or long-term level) and potential output were calculated using Hodrick-Prescott filtering.
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