Sentence examples for posterior forecast from inspiring English sources
The posterior forecast samples are obtained from model runs that use the corresponding posterior parameter samples.
On the other hand, if the variance of the sample information is smaller than the variance of the prior information, then a higher weight is assigned to the sample information causing the posterior forecast to be closer to the sample information (Chulani et al. 1998; Singh 2014).
The output of the proposed mortality forecasting model is simulated posterior distributions for the future ROMIs.
The EnKF method would be employed to approximate the posterior probabilities of model parameters and improve the forecasting accuracy based on the observed measurements; the PCM approach is proposed to construct a model response surface in terms of the posterior probabilities of model parameters to reveal uncertainty propagation from model parameters to model outputs.
After we have identified the posting user as individual/organization using this classifier, we adjust the forecast probability accordingly, by incorporating the likelihoods to derive the posterior probability of a tweet being civil unrest-related given its user type.
In this approach, a number of particles sampled from the posterior distribution are first integrated forward with the dynamical model for forecasting.
Scoring rules provide a suitable summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the posterior predictive distribution P and on the event y that materializes.
Using the complete ensemble of models generated, the posterior distribution is resampled in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with forecasting reservoir performance in a Bayesian framework.
The dispersion within the ensemble of stochastic SV forecasts is comparable to that obtained directly from the COV-OBS.x1 posterior covariance matrix (the latter being sometimes a bit less, as for instance with (dot {g}_{1}^{0})).
Despite these different prior specifications, the resulting marginal posterior densities are (very) similar Fig. 16 Prior sensitivity analysis: marginal posterior densities for σ in the validating forecasts for Danish women of our model using different prior specifications.
