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A week or two ago, we seemed to have a slight shift in national tracking polls toward Mr. Romney.
The election is close enough that if there is even a modest bias in the polls toward Mr. Obama, the president's chances will be tenuous.
We think that most of the apparent movement in national polls toward or against Mr. Obama in recent weeks likely reflects little more than statistical noise.
Our analysis finds that there has been about a 1-point swing in the polls toward Mr. Romney over this period.
It may be the effects of the party conventions, which can produce sharp — but ultimately ephemeral — "bounces" in the polls toward the party holding its convention.
But with the exception of North Carolina, those decisions predate significant movement in public polls toward greater acceptance of same-sex marriage.
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Mr. Stegemann was a tonic for the mounting American cynicism, so endlessly polled, toward the political process itself.
In several early-nominating states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, he's polling toward the middle of the pack, behind political outsiders like Trump and Carson.
She is polling toward the bottom of the pack and is unlikely to be on the prime time debate stage next week.
"The fact is we don't need to be profiling in order to be able to get the job done here," said Christie, who is polling toward the bottom of the crowded field of candidates.
2. The evidence is not very convincing that polls break toward the challenger otherwise.
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