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Our research suggests that likely-voter polls become more accurate than registered-voter polls beginning around Labor Day.
But as Election Day draws nearer, Mr. Rothschild has found, prediction markets like Intrade and Betfair, as well as public opinion polls, become increasingly accurate.
Nevertheless, once likely voter polls become more reliable and start taking the place of registered voter polls, this is more likely to hurt than help Democrats' numbers.
"Just like in campaigns for marriage here in America," the letter says, "slanted public opinion polls become fodder to influence and depress supporters of marriage.
Polls become more predictive of the outcome when the candidates are set and voters are paying more attention.
More than any recent election, we are in need a national voting day where the polls become festive places where neighbors who disagree on candidates and issues congregate as a community.
Similar(52)
The polls became progressively unequivocal.
Mr. Santorum's surge in the polls became apparent about 6 days before the Iowa caucuses, giving it time to become self-reinforcing.
However, another of Mr Miliband's Shadow Cabinet ministers Caroline Flint admitted that some Labour MPs were "having jitters" as the polls became tighter.
His polls became a basis for the "Harry and Louise" commercials, which the insurance industry used to derail the Clinton administration's proposal for universal health care.
Mr. Schoen was intrigued, and as he studied public polls, became convinced that Mr. Ford's best shot at reaching the Senate was to wage a campaign against Ms. Gillibrand.
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