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Subtract another five for polling error.
Labour weakness offers a more plausible explanation for the result than polling error.
That leaves only the final source of polling error, which is the potential that the polls might simply have been wrong all along because of statistical bias.
As the outcome of both surveys is within polling error, Scotland appears to be heading for a knife-edge result on 18 September.
This presidential-level polling error was echoed in the national House popular vote and Senate polls, which were also both off by a median of four percentage points.
But neither of the leads are within the margin of polling error, and both states are considered toss-ups that could be conceivably be determined by just a few thousand votes.
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The pattern of polling errors provides a clue to why Mr. Trump's victory came as a surprise.
The history of polling errors did not suggest so, but that history now has one more election with several consequential misses.
As a result, they will be pondering the strange movements of the orange tide and seek its meaning in nebulous terms of shifting tribal allegiance, tactical manoeuvres, regional swings, polling errors, honeymoons and holiday romances.
An article on May 18 about polling errors in the 1948 election misstated the placement of a Life magazine photograph and caption calling Thomas E. Dewey "The Next President". They appeared inside the magazine, not on the cover.
All too often in the past polling errors at elections have been forgotten because the polls concerned still predicted the correct outcome.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com